“中国汽车制造商模仿西方流行车型、做工糟糕、应付碰撞测试的日子，已经一去不复返了！”《一瞥报》这样报道前不久的2022年巴黎国际车展，该报系瑞士发行量最大的报纸。“福布斯”杂志以“巴黎车展的国际参展商缩水，但中国表现强劲”为题，称中国品牌已成为展览上当之无愧的主角。在美版知乎Quora上，美国网友提问道，中国在电动汽车市场的主导地位对美国汽车制造商的未来意味着什么？中国会很快在自己的电动汽车游戏中击败特斯拉吗？这引起各国网友的关注和热议，我们看看他们的观点。
美国网友皮特•艾洛特的回答
I believe that they will eventually produce electric cars that are as good as Tesla in terms of mileage, speed, acceleration and comfort. What they can't do is to build automatic driving and active anti-collision capability, as is the case with Western auto manufacturers.
我相信他们会制造出在续航里程、速度、加速度、舒适度等方面最终与特斯拉一样好的电动汽车。他们无法做到的是建立自动驾驶和主动防撞能力，西方的汽车制造商也是如此。
They can reverse engineer Tesla's motors, battery chemistry, etc.... Buy several Tesla's, disassemble them - learn from what they find... and build similar things. If you have enough money to do it, it is easy to do it.
他们可以对特斯拉的电机、电池化学等进行逆向工程……买几辆特斯拉的，拆开它们-从他们发现的东西中学习……然后建造类似的东西。如果你有足够的本钱做这件事，那么做起来很简单。
They may manufacture similar electronic hardware, or even steal or copy similar software. They can pry into the construction steps of Tesla's Shanghai factory and understand how Tesla can make cars so quickly and cheaply. But the only thing they can't do is artificial intelligence.
他们可能会制造类似的电子硬件，甚至窃取或复制类似的软件。他们可以窥探特斯拉上海工厂的建造步骤，了解特斯拉是如何如此快速、如此廉价地制造汽车的。但他们唯一不能做的就是人工智能部分。
With AI, there is no software source code for reverse engineering - all cars have is a seemingly random digital ocean, and it is almost impossible to figure out how AI works.
有了人工智能，就没有软件源代码可供进行逆向工程——汽车所拥有的只是一片看似随机的数字海洋，几乎没有可能性弄清楚人工智能是如何工作的。
The Tesla digital information contains the performance and size of the car, drag coefficient, precise location of the camera and other information, which cannot be copied. You must build an almost identical Tesla model. Tesla collected tens of billions of miles of real world camera footage and corresponding human driving data from people who actually drove cars at that time.
特斯拉数字信息中包含了汽车的性能和尺寸、阻力系数、摄像头的精确位置等信息，是无法复制的，你必须构建一个几乎完全相同的特斯拉模型。特斯拉是从当时实际驾驶汽车的人那里收集数百亿英里的真实世界摄像机镜头以及相应的人类驾驶数据。
Then you need to spend billions of dollars to build the world's most powerful AI supercomputer (Tesla's "Dojo") to process these data, and then use it to train your own AI driving car.
然后你需要花费数十亿美元建造世界上最强大的人工智能超级计算机（特斯拉的“Dojo”）来处理这些数据，然后用它来训练你自己的人工智能驾驶汽车。
To do this, you also need the best AI engineer team in the world... It will be very difficult because they have already worked for Tesla.
要做到这一点，你还需要一个世界上最好的人工智能工程师团队……这将很困难，因为他们都已经为特斯拉工作了。
You said they might train their AI engineers - they might invest money to solve this problem and build their own ashram. But there is no shortcut to collect real driving data.
你说他们可能会训练自己的人工智能工程师——他们可能会投入资金解决这个问题并建立自己的道场。但收集真实驾驶数据没有捷径。
Tesla has done this. It has installed cameras on every car it has built for many years. There are 1 million cars on the road. Each car travels about 15000 miles every year. Now they can collect 15 billion miles of real world data every year.
特斯拉做到了这一点，在它多年来制造的每一辆汽车上都安装了摄像头，在路上有100万辆汽车，每辆车每年行驶约15000英里，现在他们每年可以收集150亿英里的真实世界数据。
This is a problem for any competitor... not just China. Ford, General Motors, Volkswagen, Toyota and so on... they all have the same problem.
这对任何竞争对手都是个问题……不仅仅是中国。福特、通用、大众、丰田等……他们都有同样的问题。
Worse, next year, Tesla will have 2 million cars on the road, and the speed of data collection will be twice that of this year. In 18 months, Tesla will build another 3 million cars, and now they will collect data at five times the current speed.
更糟糕的是，明年，特斯拉将有200万辆汽车上路，收集数据的速度将是今年的两倍。18个月后，特斯拉将再制造300万辆汽车，现在他们将以目前的五倍速度收集数据。
This is why Tesla is leading the way - in the field of automatic driving, Tesla will continue to be ahead of any possible competitor. They will sell more cars because they are more capable. With these, they can collect more real world data and let them continue to improve to meet the needs of consumers.
这就是特斯拉领先的原因——在自动驾驶领域，特斯拉将继续领先于任何可能的竞争对手。他们会卖出更多的汽车，因为他们更有能力，有了这些，他们可以收集更多真实世界的数据，让他们继续完善以适应消费者的需要。
Tesla's "AI Day" is a good example to illustrate this point - they are thinking about how to train cars to recognize the "stop" sign, and they are writing software to recognize when people stop at intersections without stop lights (their AI can already recognize). The car is programmed to acquire images from the front view camera every time this happens, and send the photos back to Tesla headquarters through the cellular network.
特斯拉的“人工智能日”就是一个很好的例子，说明了这一点-他们正在思考如何训练汽车识别“停止”标志，他们编写软件，以识别在没有停车灯的十字路口（他们的人工智能已经可以识别），当人停下来时。该车被编程为每次发生这种情况时都能从前视摄像头获取图像，并通过蜂窝网络将照片发送回特斯拉总部。
They launched this software to every Tesla car in the world during the routine update of the software. Let's assume that an ordinary Tesla car owner passes five stop signs on the way to work. When they upload this photo to about one million Tesla cars, the next day, they receive 10 million photos that are almost certainly stop signs.
他们在软件的例行更新中向世界上的每一辆特斯拉汽车推出这款软件。让我们假设一个普通的特斯拉车主在上班的路上通过了五个停车标志当他们把这张照片上传到大约一百万辆特斯拉汽车后，第二天，他们就收到了一千万张几乎可以肯定是停车标志的照片。
If they let the software run on everyone's car, they will have 300 million photos of parking signs in a month. They can now train their artificial intelligence based on these data and become the best experts in the world on all kinds of strange parking signs.
如果他们让软件在每个人的车上运行，那么一个月后，他们就会有3亿张停车标志的照片。他们现在可以根据这些数据训练自己的人工智能，成为世界上对各种奇怪的停车标志情况的最佳专家。
More retraining of AI to catch these error cases... The error cases are getting smaller and smaller until AI is 100 times better than human drivers in recognizing stop signs.
对人工智能进行更多的重新训练，以捕捉这些错误案例……错误案例越来越小，直到人工智能在识别停车标志方面比人类驾驶员好100倍。
The problem of data collection is huge... Only millions of cars and millions of people can complete it. Any new company needs years of automobile manufacturing to collect data of sufficient scale to deal with the problem of automatic driving.
这个数据收集问题是巨大的……只有数百万辆汽车和数百万人驾驶才能完成。任何一家新公司都需要多年的汽车制造，才能收集足够规模的数据来处理自动驾驶问题。
The reaction time of a car is 20 to 200 times that of a human driver - it has a 360-degree view at any time - and it can use driving control that we humans do not have.
汽车的反应时间是人类驾驶员的20到200倍——它随时都有360度的视野——而且它可以使用我们人类所没有的驾驶控制。
This leading position in data collection ensures that Tesla will become the largest auto company in the world... At this point, their competitors will not be able to sell enough cars to collect enough data to catch up.
这种数据收集的领先地位确保了特斯拉将成为世界上最大的汽车公司……在这一点上，他们的竞争对手将不可能卖出足够的汽车来收集足够的数据来追赶。
美国网友史蒂文•班克的回答
There is no doubt that China has made some impressive electric cars. If they come to the United States, it is definitely an attractive choice for consumers.
毫无疑问，中国制造了一些令人印象深刻的电动汽车。如果他们来到美国，对消费者来说绝对是一个诱人的选择。
However, there are some things to remember.
然而，有一些事情需要记住。
1. They use a very outdated and lab-centric method to calculate the range of electric vehicles. In the United States, we use EPA (United States Environmental Protection Agency Pure Electric Range), and in Europe and other parts of the world, they use WLTP (Global Light Vehicle Emission Test Standard). Chinese automakers like to use NEDC (European Endurance Test Standard). For decades, NEDC has proved to be outdated - that is why WLTP was invented. However, car manufacturers like to use it because it raises the number very high. Therefore, the scope of their boasting is far from what they say. Moreover, when their cars are transported to the United States, they will experience worse performance because we have much more highways than them.
1.他们使用一种非常过时且以实验室为中心的方法来计算电动汽车续航里程。在美国，我们使用EPA（美国环境保护署纯电续航里程），在欧洲和世界其他地区，他们使用WLTP（全球轻型车排放测试标准）。中国汽车制造商喜欢使用NEDC（欧洲续航测试标准）。几十年来，NEDC被证明是过时的——这就是WLTP被发明的原因。但是，汽车制造商喜欢使用它，因为它将数字提高得非常高。因此，他们吹嘘的范围远不如他们所说的那么好。而且，将他们的汽车运到美国，他们将体验到更糟糕的性能，因为我们拥有比他们多得多的高速公路。
2. The price looks very attractive. But this is the price in China. Transporting their cars to the United States will increase their taxes by up to 50%. This may make them far more expensive than Tesla. In China, all Tesla not produced there is about 50% more than here. Therefore, when you have "home", you will get 50% advantage.
2.价格看起来非常诱人。但是，这是中国的价格。将他们的汽车运到美国将增加他们的税收，最高可达50%。这可能会使他们远远高于特斯拉的成本。在中国，所有没有在那里生产的Tesla大约比这里多50%。因此，当你拥有“主场”时，你将获得50%的优势。
3. Many car manufacturers there choose to change the power instead of charging. Any car owner who chooses to replace the battery can get a discount. Their car is really sexy. China is the master of technology. Xiaopeng car is my personal favorite. However, when you count these numbers carefully, you will find how disappointing they are in fact.
3.那里的许多汽车制造商选择换电而不是充电。任何选择更换电池的车主都可以获得折扣。他们的车是真性感。中国是技术的主人。小鹏汽车是我个人的最爱。但是，当你细数这些数字时，你会发现它们实际上是多么令人失望。
As for winning the "game", it depends on what you mean by winning. If you mean global sales, I don't know these figures - but I think Tesla still has advantages. The reason is that there are far fewer car owners in China than in the United States and Europe.
至于赢得“比赛”，这取决于你所说的胜利是什么意思。如果你指的是全球销量，我不知道这些数字——但我想特斯拉还是有优势的。原因是中国的车主远少于美国和欧洲。
If you are talking about sales in China, as I mentioned, they have a 50% home advantage. However, Tesla did well - much better than I expected.
如果你说的是中国的销售量，就像我提到的，他们有50%的主场优势。然而，特斯拉做得很好——比我想象的要好得多。
If Chinese new energy vehicle manufacturers want to occupy a certain share in the United States, they need to deal with all the problems I mentioned above, otherwise they will be excluded from the United States.
如果中国的新能源汽车厂商想要在美国占据一定份额，他们需要处理好我上面提到的所有问题，否则他们被排挤出美国。
美国网友皮特•马丁的回答
I don't know the answer yet.
我目前还不知道答案。
At present, China will not necessarily occupy a leading position in the field of new energy vehicles, but they must have invested a lot of national resources for electric transport at the national level. Although there are more pure electric products sold in China, they also have about 1.4 billion citizens, so the market size is four times that of the United States and the European Union. At present, for various reasons, it has little impact on American industry.
中国目前不一定会在新能源汽车领域占据主导地位，但他们肯定在国家层面为电动交通投入了大量的国家资源。虽然在中国销售的纯电产品更多，但他们也有大约14亿公民，因此市场规模是美国和欧盟的4倍。目前，由于各种原因，它对美国工业几乎没有影响。
At least at present, China is not a major auto importer of the United States. Although it does not export local brands to most parts of the West, many well-known Western auto brands are manufactured and assembled in China. Therefore, if the political environment allows in the near future, it will take several years for any Chinese manufacturer to establish a complete operation in the United States or the European Union, including distribution, parts, services, etc. Many people have tried, but most have failed.
至少目前中国还不是美国主要的汽车进口国。虽然它不向西方大部分地区出口本土品牌，但许多西方知名汽车品牌都是在中国制造和组装的。因此，如果政治环境在不久的将来允许，任何中国制造商都需要几年的时间才能在美国或欧盟建立完整的运营，包括分销、零部件、服务等，还有许多人尝试过，但大多数都失败了。
In addition, from the perspective of market size, China has a long way to go to meet its domestic demand. They were different from Japan after World War II, when the Ministry of Industry and Technology of Japan took increasing their market share in the United States as a national measure between the government and industry, because it brought much-needed capital to Japan.
此外，从市场规模的角度来看，中国要满足其内需还有很长的路要走。他们与二战后的日本不同，当时日本工业和技术部将增加他们在美国的市场份额作为政府和工业之间的一项国家举措，因为这为日本带来了急需的资本。
China has taken some actions to show that it does not want to be a slave to the oil industry like many developed countries. Therefore, electric vehicles are a good choice. At least in China, people who consider energy dependence, pollution and traffic congestion think so.
中国已经采取了一些行动，表明它不想像许多发达国家一样成为石油工业的奴隶。因此，电动汽车是一种很好的选择，至少在中国，考虑能源依赖、污染和交通拥堵的人是这样认为的。
I suspect that as time goes by, some Chinese auto companies will try to sell cars in the United States or the European Union. The American automobile industry is not unique. From the perspective of technology, labor cost and national pride, it has the same weaknesses and advantages as European and Japanese industries.
我怀疑，随着时间的推移，一些中国汽车公司将试图在美国或欧盟销售汽车。美国汽车工业并非独一无二。从技术、劳动力成本和民族自豪感的角度来看，它具有与欧洲和日本工业相同的弱点和优势。
Strangely, not everyone is aware that Volvo Cars is actually controlled by Geely, a large Chinese car company. They also bought a large share of Daimler (the parent company of Mercedes) and owned a majority stake in Lotus.
奇怪的是，并不是所有人都意识到沃尔沃汽车实际上由中国大型汽车公司吉利控股。他们还购买了戴姆勒（梅赛德斯的母公司）的大量股份，并拥有莲花汽车（路特斯）的多数股权。
中国网友宋罗基的回答
China welcomes Tesla with open arms. Tesla is the first foreign automaker approved to own 100% of its Chinese factory. Previously, all other automobile manufacturers had to cooperate with local partners through joint venture agreements. China also provided loans for the construction of Tesla's Shanghai super factory. Therefore, the financial impact of cash flow on Tesla is minimal. China has also purposely incorporated the location of the super factory into the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, which has a series of tax concessions and import tariff exemptions. Why is China so friendly to Tesla?
中国张开双臂欢迎特斯拉。特斯拉是第一家获准拥有其中国工厂100%股权的外国汽车制造商。此前，所有其他汽车制造商都必须通过合资协议与当地合作伙伴合作。中国还为特斯拉上海超级工厂的建设提供贷款。因此，现金流对特斯拉的财务影响微乎其微。中国还特意将超级工厂的所在地纳入上海自由贸易区，该区设有一系列税收优惠和进口关税豁免。为什么中国对特斯拉如此友好？
As part of the agreement, Tesla agreed to increase the percentage of Chinese content. This is a win-win solution. China has acquired technology, and Tesla can produce electric vehicles with lower costs. China has decided to encourage the development of electric vehicles. This will not only help solve the air pollution problem in urban areas and realize the commitment of carbon dioxide emissions, but also see electric vehicles as a growth opportunity.
作为协议的一部分，特斯拉同意提高中国含量的百分比。这是一个双赢的解决方案，中国获得了技术，特斯拉可以生产成本更低的电动汽车。中国已经决定鼓励电动汽车的发展。这不仅有助于解决城市地区的空气污染问题，实现二氧化碳排放承诺，而且他们还将电动汽车视为一个增长机会。
China concluded that it could not effectively complete cooperation with western countries and Japan on traditional internal combustion engine vehicles, because they have more than 100 years of history to improve this technology. On the other hand, electric vehicle is a new technology. Compared with fuel vehicles, electric vehicles are also less complex to manufacture. China hopes to surpass the traditional automobile manufacturers in Germany, Japan and the United States by focusing on electric vehicle technology. They are already the largest auto market in the world, so if they put their resources together, they have a good chance of success.
中国的结论是，它无法在传统内燃机汽车上与西方国家和日本有效地完成合作，因为他们有100多年的历史来完善这项技术。另一方面，电动汽车是一项新技术。与燃油汽车相比，电动汽车制造起来也不那么复杂。中国希望通过专注于电动汽车技术，超越德国、日本和美国的传统汽车制造商。他们已经是世界上最大的汽车市场，所以如果他们把资源放在一起，他们很有机会成功。
At present, most electric vehicles made in China are low-end vehicles with smaller batteries and shorter distances. China invites the best Tesla in the electric vehicle industry, which will bring competition to Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers. This will force their local electric vehicle manufacturers to become better in order to compete with Tesla.
目前，大多数中国制造的电动汽车都是电池更小、距离更短的低端车型。中国邀请电动汽车行业中最好的特斯拉，将给中国电动汽车制造商带来竞争。这将迫使他们的本土电动汽车制造商变得更好，以便与特斯拉竞争。
So, can Tesla change the pattern of electric vehicles in China? (1) It will accelerate the adoption of China's electric vehicle market; (2) It will help Chinese local electric vehicle manufacturers improve quality, technology and output through Tesla's competition; (3) It will crowd out the traditional internal combustion engine manufacturers in China who have not mastered the technology of electric vehicles; (4) China will become the world's leading manufacturer of electric vehicles, and is likely to be an exporter.
那么，特斯拉的存在能改变中国电动汽车的格局吗？（1） 它将加速中国电动汽车市场的采用；（2） 它将帮助中国本土电动汽车制造商通过特斯拉的竞争提高质量、技术和产量；（3） 它将挤掉中国尚未掌握电动汽车技术的传统内燃机制造商；（4） 中国将成为世界上主要的电动汽车制造商，而且很可能是一个出口国。
