为什么很多欧洲官员改变了观点，不再认为俄罗斯是北溪爆炸的幕后黑手？仅仅是没找到俄罗斯动手的证据吗？
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2月1日，我发了一条关于北溪的微博。认为如果真的北溪是俄罗斯干的，应该西方各种媒体报道满天飞了。不应该到现在为止还悄无声息。
一周之后，英国泰晤士报发了一篇文章，内容是一位美国著名的调查记者Seymour Hersh撰文披露是美国炸毁了北溪管道。当然，泰晤士报做为知名的英国报纸，并没有证实这个报道的真伪，只是引用而已。这个报道也是记者的一面之词。
但作为英国头号严肃报纸，也不会引用一篇完全胡说八道的文章吧。
这位记者Seymour Hersh是何许人也？
根据大不列颠百科全书线上版，这位赫什（Seymour Hersh），1937 年 4 月 8 日出生于美国伊利诺伊州芝加哥市），美国记者，已经快85岁了。据称，他是一位对美国民主有坚定信仰的人，因为理想主义原因而揭发黑幕。他因为揭露美军在越南的美莱大屠杀获得了1970年的普利策奖。赫什于 1972 年加入《纽约时报》 ，对水门事件丑闻进行了开创性的报道，尽管该报道的大部分功劳归功于卡尔·伯恩斯坦和赫什的长期竞争对手鲍勃·伍德沃德。赫什也是伊拉克阿布格莱布监狱虐待囚犯事件的主要揭露者。
赫什的职业生涯建立在赢得政府、军方和情报界消息来源（通常不具名）的信任之上，他将自己的使命描述为让公职人员“达到尽可能高的正直和诚实标准”。在他的职业生涯中，赫什获得了无数荣誉。除了普利策奖外，他还获得了五项乔治波尔克奖。
当然，对这位记者的批评也不少。根据维基百科，赫什使用匿名消息来源一直受到批评。美国国防部发言人布赖恩·惠特曼 (Bryan G. Whitman) 说：“这位记者因根据事实做出夸张的断言而享有盛誉。基于来源稀少、无法核实的匿名来源。”
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报道是否真实，我没有任何方法证明。
但我确实一直怀疑是美国或者美国盟国干的。
理由是一些基本的逻辑推理：首先，是能力，这个不用解释，美国足够强大，有能力做到这件事。
其次是动机，有几点：
1. 美国一直坚决反对北溪，希望也试图搞黄北溪。威胁施压制裁都用过。
2. 俄罗斯向欧洲施压的主要手段就是能源。用断供去威胁，用恢复供气去示好。北溪不是一开始就彻底断掉的，而是断断续续。北溪彻底断掉俄就失去了筹码。
3. 其他的管线经过对俄罗斯敌意明显的波兰或乌克兰。只有北溪直接到德国。而德国在挺乌上又是不够坚定的。德国有可能被廉价天然气诱惑，需要断了这种可能。
4. 美国LNG填补俄气空白，赚了很多钱。彻底断掉北溪，美国未来能赚更多钱。是受益者。当然还有其他受益者，比如挪威。
当然，从阴谋论套娃的角度，北溪被炸事件，确实不能排除俄罗斯栽赃嫁祸美国，离间美欧的可能性。
不过，栽赃嫁祸给他人这种事不少见，但凶手栽赃嫁祸给调查案件的警察，这种事很少听说。
爆炸在丹麦和瑞典边上，这是北约防备最严密的地域之一。瑞典准备要加入北约，美国当年窃听欧盟领导人，具体执行者就是丹麦国家情报局。北溪爆炸案的调查，美国方面的影响力肯定是最大的。
俄罗斯搞事，然后栽赃栽给调查的警察，有点不可思议了。
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从九月份北溪被炸，到现在，已经四个多月了，经过了各国的严密调查，这么久还找不到实锤证据。只确认是认为炸的，但不知道是谁。理论上，要找到俄罗斯炸的证据，早就爆了。
去年12月21日，美国知名主流媒体《华盛顿邮报》发表了一篇文章，题目是《没有确凿证据表明俄罗斯是北溪袭击的幕后黑手》
里面有这样的描述：
但现在，经过几个月的调查，许多官员私下表示，俄罗斯可能毕竟不是北溪管道袭击的罪魁祸首。
一名欧洲官员表示：“目前没有证据表明俄罗斯是这次破坏活动的幕后黑手。”这与最近几周接受采访的9个国家的23名外交和情报官员的评估相呼应。
一些人甚至表示，他们认为俄罗斯没有责任。其他仍然认为俄罗斯是主要嫌疑人的人表示，肯定地将袭击归咎于任何国家可能是不可能的。
但官员们说，即使是那些对调查细节有内部了解的人，也没有最终将俄罗斯与袭击联系起来，他们不愿透露姓名，以分享调查进展的信息，其中一些是基于机密情报。
部分官员表示遗憾的是，如此多的世界领导人将矛头指向莫斯科，而不考虑可能有能力和动机进行袭击的其他国家以及极端组织。
一位欧洲官员表示：“在得出结论之前不发表评论的政府是正确的。”
2022年9月，刚发生爆炸时，一位欧洲高级环境官员在告诉华盛顿邮报。“欧洲一边没有人会考虑除俄罗斯破坏之外的可能。”但随着调查的拖延，怀疑论者指出，俄罗斯从俄罗斯输送西欧天然气的管道遭到破坏，对俄罗斯没有什么好处。这些管道每年产生数十亿美元的收入。北溪项目多年来一直引发争议和辩论，因为它们将德国和其他欧洲国家与俄罗斯的能源联系在一起。
一名西欧官员表示：“俄罗斯（袭击管道）的理由对我来说从来没有意义。”
根据《华盛顿邮报》的描述，2022年9月，刚发生爆炸时，绝大多数欧洲官员都认为，这是俄罗斯干的。但随着调查的深入，越来越多的欧洲官员认为，没有证据表明俄罗斯是这次破坏活动的幕后黑手。
这些欧洲官员调查出了什么，让他们改变了原先的观点？仅仅是没有找到俄罗斯炸管道的证据吗？还是，他们发现了一些其他的不可言说的东西？
华盛顿邮报是美国顶级媒体，自然不会干太出格的事情。但还是发了这么一篇隐约意有所指的文章。
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Seymour Hersh的调查全文（中英对照机翻）我附在最后。
里面大概的描述包括：
2022年6月，美国海军潜水员在广为宣传的北约夏季演习BALTOPS 22的掩护下，放置了远程触发的炸药。这个行动以一个在博恩霍尔姆岛海岸举行的水下布雷和探测水雷的行动做为掩护
这个事情得到了挪威军队的大力配合。挪威是欧洲主要的石油和天然气供应国。算是北溪被炸的获利一方。
北约的秘书长是延斯·斯托尔滕贝格，他曾担任挪威总理八年，直到2014年在美国的支持下担任北约高级职位。他在普京和俄罗斯的所有事情上都是强硬派，自越南战争以来一直与美国情报界合作。从那以后，他一直受到完全信任。
连接在管道上的C4炸药将由飞机在短时间内投放的声纳浮标触发，但这一过程涉及最先进的信号处理技术。
2022年9月26日，挪威海军的一架P8侦察机进行了一次看似例行的飞行，并投下了声纳浮标。信号在水下传播，最初是北溪2号，然后是北溪1号。几个小时后，大功率C4炸药被触发，四条管道中的三条被停用。几分钟内，可以看到留在关闭的管道中的甲烷气体池在水面上蔓延，世界得知发生了不可逆转的事情。
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现代国家，基本都有比较完备的国内法律。在国内炸掉一段输气管道，那可是大事。凶手大概率被绳之以法。
但国际社会中国际法的完备性，远远不如各国国内。国际社会，是一个法律败坏的地方。也许还不如哥伦比亚这样毒枭盛行的国家。
在这样一个社会中，谁会更肆无忌惮，谁的胆量更大?
在一个法律败坏的地方，是一个有钱有势，拳头最大，还控制着舆论媒体的大佬更肆无忌惮，胆子更大？
还是一个无钱无势，毫无舆论能力的普通人胆子更大？谁会更高调更肆无忌惮？
逻辑上，应该是有钱有势的人会更高调更胆大更肆无忌惮吧。
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这篇文章提到了挪威政府通过的《补充防务合作协议》（SDCA）。该协议规定：美国法律体系将在某些“商定地区”对被控在基地外犯罪的美国士兵以及被控或涉嫌干扰基地工作的挪威公民拥有管辖权。
旧中国是半殖民地国家。半殖民地国家的标志包括：本国国土上的外国驻军；国中之国，不受中国法律管辖的租界；治外法权。外国人在中国犯法，由外国根据外国法律审理处罚，中国无权审理等等。
根据挪威媒体的报道，美国和挪威的协议，包括：
美国将无条件进入和使用四个“约定区域”。在挪威北部，这两个地区是拉姆松德海军基地和埃文斯空军基地。
所谓“约定区域”，基本上就是美国、挪威等盟友共同使用的有限区域，用于军事目的。在这些地区，美国可以进行训练和演习，部署部队并储存设备、物资和其他装备。
该协议还开放了根据特殊协议向美国提供对部分地区的独家使用权和使用权。在这些地区及其附近，美国也将有权对挪威公民行使权力。
美国被赋予了起诉在公务外犯下刑事罪行的美军的首要权利，并有权定义什么是公务行为，什么不是公务行为。有了这项协议，美国将能够对所有刑事案件行使主要管辖权。“未来实际的主要规则将是美国当局将起诉他们自己军队犯下的罪行。”
根据挪威总检察长的声明：“每个部队成员都有行使权力（和权力）的途径，并且可以对任何接触商定区域或在特殊情况下妨碍美国行动的人行使权力”；“因此，任何美国部队成员都可以对挪威平民施加权力，以恢复秩序或保护部队。”；“在对威胁感知采取不同方法或采取相称措施的极端情况下，挪威当局没有否决权。”
美国在挪威有驻军。这个协议，规定了美军在挪威有国中之国的租借。赋予美国的权力，也已经超越了一般治外法权。不仅仅在挪威的美军可以享受公务和非公务范畴的治外法权，和美军有关的部分挪威公民，美国也有一定的司法权力。
当然，我们不能称人均GDP首屈一指的挪威为半殖民地国家。但这个世界上，也许，真正有完整独立主权的国家，也没有我们想象的那么多。
北溪的爆炸，也许永远是个谜。不管找到什么样的证据，我相信欧洲国家最多也只是内心里嘟囔两句，腹诽一下，然后就不了了之了。
毕竟，美国还是那个打赢了二战和冷战的美国。胜利者是不受审判的。
去机场路上写了一篇。快起飞了，也来不及编辑查错了。😁
附录
Seymour Hersh的调查全文（中英对照机翻）
How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline
The U.S. Navy’s Diving and Salvage Center can be found in a location as obscure as its name—down what was once a country lane in rural Panama City, a now-booming resort city in the southwestern panhandle of Florida, 70 miles south of the Alabama border. The center’s complex is as nondescript as its location—a drab concrete post-World War II structure that has the look of a vocational high school on the west side of Chicago. A coin-operated laundromat and a dance school are across what is now a four-lane road.
美国海军的潜水打捞中心就像它的名字一样默默无闻——位于巴拿马城乡村的一条乡间小路上。巴拿马城是佛罗里达州西南部狭长地带的一座度假城市，现在正在蓬勃发展，距离阿拉巴马州边境以南70英里。该中心的建筑群和它的位置一样不起眼——这是一座二战后的单调混凝土建筑，看起来像芝加哥西侧的一所职业高中。在现在的四车道公路对面，有一家投币式自助洗衣店和一所舞蹈学校。
The center has been training highly skilled deep-water divers for decades who, once assigned to American military units worldwide, are capable of technical diving to do the good—using C4 explosives to clear harbors and beaches of debris and unexploded ordinance—as well as the bad, like blowing up foreign oil rigs, fouling intake valves for undersea power plants, destroying locks on crucial shipping canals. The Panama City center, which boasts the second largest indoor pool in America, was the perfect place to recruit the best, and most taciturn, graduates of the diving school who successfully did last summer what they had been authorized to do 260 feet under the surface of the Baltic Sea.
几十年来，该中心一直在培训高技能的深水潜水员。一旦被派往世界各地的美军部队，这些潜水员就有能力进行技术性的潜水，既能做好事——用C4炸药清除港口和海滩上的残骸和未爆弹药——也能做坏事，比如炸毁外国石油钻井平台，污染海底发电厂的进水阀门，摧毁关键的航运运河的船闸。巴拿马城中心号称拥有美国第二大室内游泳池，是招募潜水学校最优秀、最沉默寡言的毕业生的理想场所。去年夏天，他们成功地完成了他们被授权在波罗的海海面下260英尺的任务。
Last June, the Navy divers, operating under the cover of a widely publicized mid-summer NATO exercise known as BALTOPS 22 , planted the remotely triggered explosives that, three months later, destroyed three of the four Nord Stream pipelines, according to a source with direct knowledge of the operational planning.
据一位直接了解行动计划的消息人士透露，去年6月，海军潜水员在广为宣传的北约仲夏演习BALTOPS 22的掩护下，放置了远程触发的炸药，三个月后摧毁了四条北溪管道中的三条。
Two of the pipelines, which were known collectively as Nord Stream 1, had been providing Germany and much of Western Europe with cheap Russian natural gas for more than a decade. A second pair of pipelines, called Nord Stream 2, had been built but were not yet operational. Now, with Russian troops massing on the Ukrainian border and the bloodiest war in Europe since 1945 looming, President Joseph Biden saw the pipelines as a vehicle for Vladimir Putin to weaponize natural gas for his political and territorial ambitions.
其中两条管道被统称为北溪1号，十多年来一直为德国和西欧大部分地区提供廉价的俄罗斯天然气。第二对管道名为北溪2号，已经建成，但尚未投入使用。现在，随着俄罗斯军队在乌克兰边境集结，欧洲自1945年以来最血腥的战争迫在眉睫，约瑟夫·拜登总统将这些管道视为弗拉基米尔·普京将天然气武器化的工具，以实现他的政治和领土野心。
Asked for comment, Adrienne Watson, a White House spokesperson, said in an email, “This is false and complete fiction.” Tammy Thorp, a spokesperson for the Central Intelligence Agency, similarly wrote: “This claim is completely and utterly false.”
在被要求置评时，白宫发言人埃德里安娜·沃森在一封电子邮件中说，“这是虚假的，完全是虚构的。”美国中央情报局发言人塔米·索普也同样写道：“这种说法完全是虚假的。”
Biden’s decision to sabotage the pipelines came after more than nine months of highly secret back and forth debate inside Washington’s national security community about how to best achieve that goal. For much of that time, the issue was not whether to do the mission, but how to get it done with no overt clue as to who was responsible.
拜登做出破坏输油管道的决定之前，华盛顿的国家安全界就如何最好地实现这一目标进行了九个多月的高度秘密的反复辩论。在大部分时间里，问题不在于是否要完成这项任务，而是如何在没有明确线索的情况下完成这项任务。
There was a vital bureaucratic reason for relying on the graduates of the center’s hardcore diving school in Panama City. The divers were Navy only, and not members of America’s Special Operations Command, whose covert operations must be reported to Congress and briefed in advance to the Senate and House leadership—the so-called Gang of Eight . The Biden Administration was doing everything possible to avoid leaks as the planning took place late in 2021 and into the first months of 2022.
依赖该中心在巴拿马城的核心潜水学校的毕业生有一个至关重要的官僚原因。潜水员只是海军，而不是美国特种作战司令部的成员。特种作战司令部的秘密行动必须向国会报告，并事先向参议院和众议院领导层——即所谓的八人帮——通报。拜登政府正在尽一切可能避免泄密，因为计划是在2021年底和2022年头几个月进行的。
President Biden and his foreign policy team—National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Tony Blinken, and Victoria Nuland, the Undersecretary of State for Policy—had been vocal and consistent in their hostility to the two pipelines, which ran side by side for 750 miles under the Baltic Sea from two different ports in northeastern Russia near the Estonian border, passing close to the Danish island of Bornholm before ending in northern Germany.
拜登总统和他的外交政策团队——国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文、国务卿托尼·布林肯和负责政策的副国务卿维多利亚·纽兰——一直直言不讳地反对这两条管道，这两条管道从俄罗斯东北部靠近爱沙尼亚边境的两个不同港口在波罗的海下并排运行750英里，靠近丹麦的博恩霍尔姆岛，最后在德国北部结束。
The direct route, which bypassed any need to transit Ukraine, had been a boon for the German economy, which enjoyed an abundance of cheap Russian natural gas—enough to run its factories and heat its homes while enabling German distributors to sell excess gas, at a profit, throughout Western Europe. Action that could be traced to the administration would violate US promises to minimize direct conflict with Russia. Secrecy was essential.
这条直通路线绕过了从乌克兰过境的任何需要，对德国经济来说是一个福音。德国拥有丰富的廉价俄罗斯天然气，足以运行其工厂和供暖家庭，同时使德国分销商能够在整个西欧出售多余的天然气并获利。可以追溯到政府的行动将违反US承诺，即尽量减少与俄罗斯的直接冲突。保密至关重要。
From its earliest days, Nord Stream 1 was seen by Washington and its anti-Russian NATO partners as a threat to western dominance. The holding company behind it, Nord Stream AG , was incorporated in Switzerland in 2005 in partnership with Gazprom, a publicly traded Russian company producing enormous profits for shareholders which is dominated by oligarchs known to be in the thrall of Putin. Gazprom controlled 51 percent of the company, with four European energy firms—one in France, one in the Netherlands and two in Germany—sharing the remaining 49 percent of stock, and having the right to control downstream sales of the inexpensive natural gas to local distributors in Germany and Western Europe. Gazprom’s profits were shared with the Russian government, and state gas and oil revenues were estimated in some years to amount to as much as 45 percent of Russia’s annual budget.
从一开始，北溪一号就被华盛顿及其反俄的北约伙伴视为对西方主导地位的威胁。其背后的控股公司北溪股份有限公司于2005年与俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司合作在瑞士成立。俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司是一家公开上市的俄罗斯公司，为股东带来巨额利润，众所周知，该公司由受普京控制的寡头控制。俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司控制了该公司51%的股份，四家欧洲能源公司——一家在法国，一家在荷兰，两家在德国——分享剩余49%的股份，并有权控制向德国和西欧当地分销商销售廉价天然气的下游销售。俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的利润与俄罗斯政府分享，国家天然气和石油收入在某些年份估计高达45%的俄罗斯年度预算。
America’s political fears were real: Putin would now have an additional and much-needed major source of income, and Germany and the rest of Western Europe would become addicted to low-cost natural gas supplied by Russia—while diminishing European reliance on America. In fact, that’s exactly what happened. Many Germans saw Nord Stream 1 as part of the deliverance of former Chancellor Willy Brandt’s famed Ostpolitik theory , which would enable postwar Germany to rehabilitate itself and other European nations destroyed in World War II by, among other initiatives, utilizing cheap Russian gas to fuel a prosperous Western European market and trading economy.
美国的政治担忧是真实存在的：普京现在将拥有一个额外且急需的主要收入来源，德国和西欧其他国家将沉迷于俄罗斯提供的低成本天然气，同时减少欧洲对美国的依赖。事实上，这正是发生的事情。许多德国人认为北溪1号是前总理维利·勃兰特著名的东方政治理论的一部分，该理论将使战后德国能够通过利用廉价的俄罗斯天然气为繁荣的西欧市场和贸易经济提供燃料等举措来恢复自己和其他在二战中被摧毁的欧洲国家。
Nord Stream 1 was dangerous enough, in the view of NATO and Washington, but Nord Stream 2, whose construction was completed in September of 2021 , would, if approved by German regulators, double the amount of cheap gas that would be available to Germany and Western Europe. The second pipeline also would provide enough gas for more than 50 percent of Germany’s annual consumption. Tensions were constantly escalating between Russia and NATO, backed by the aggressive foreign policy of the Biden Administration.
在北约和华盛顿看来，北溪1号已经足够危险，但北溪2号的建设于2021年9月完成，如果得到德国监管机构的批准，将使德国和西欧可获得的廉价天然气量增加一倍。第二条管道还将为德国提供超过50%的年消费量。在拜登政府咄咄逼人的外交政策的支持下，俄罗斯和北约之间的紧张局势不断升级。
Opposition to Nord Stream 2 flared on the eve of the Biden inauguration in January 2021, when Senate Republicans, led by Ted Cruz of Texas, repeatedly raised the political threat of cheap Russian natural gas during the confirmation hearing of Blinken as Secretary of State. By then a unified Senate had successfully passed a law that, as Cruz told Blinken, “halted [the pipeline] in its tracks.” There would be enormous political and economic pressure from the German government, then headed by Angela Merkel, to get the second pipeline online.
在2021年1月拜登就职前夕，对北溪2号管道的反对情绪爆发，当时以德克萨斯州的特德·克鲁兹为首的参议院共和党人在布林肯担任国务卿的确认听证会上一再提出俄罗斯廉价天然气的政治威胁。到那时，统一的参议院已经成功通过了一项法律，正如克鲁兹告诉布林肯的那样，该法律“停止了（管道）的运行。”当时以安格拉·默克尔为首的德国政府将面临巨大的政治和经济压力，要求第二条管道上线。
Would Biden stand up to the Germans? Blinken said yes, but added that he had not discussed the specifics of the incoming President’s views. “I know his strong conviction that this is a bad idea, the Nord Stream 2,” he said. “I know that he would have us use every persuasive tool that we have to convince our friends and partners, including Germany, not to move forward with it.”
拜登会站出来对抗德国人吗？布林肯说会，但他补充说，他没有讨论即将上任的总统的具体观点。“我知道他坚信北溪2号是个坏主意，”他说。“我知道他会让我们使用一切有说服力的工具来说服我们的朋友和伙伴，包括德国，不要推进它。”
A few months later, as the construction of the second pipeline neared completion, Biden blinked. That May, in a stunning turnaround , the administration waived sanctions against Nord Stream AG, with a State Department official conceding that trying to stop the pipeline through sanctions and diplomacy had “always been a long shot.” Behind the scenes, administration officials reportedly urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, by then facing a threat of Russian invasion, not to criticize the move.
几个月后，当第二条管道的建设接近完成时，拜登眨了眨眼睛。那年5月，政府发生了惊人的转变，放弃了对北溪公司的制裁，一名国务院官员承认，试图通过制裁和外交手段阻止管道“一直是一个漫长的机会”。据报道，政府官员敦促乌克兰总统沃洛季米尔·泽伦斯基不要批评此举。
There were immediate consequences. Senate Republicans, led by Cruz, announced an immediate blockade of all of Biden’s foreign policy nominees and delayed passage of the annual defense bill for months, deep into the fall. Politico later depicted Biden’s turnabout on the second Russian pipeline as “the one decision, arguably more than the chaotic military withdrawal from Afghanistan, that has imperiled Biden’s agenda.”
立即产生了后果。以克鲁兹为首的参议院共和党人宣布立即封锁拜登的所有外交政策提名人，并将年度国防法案的通过推迟了几个月，直到秋天。Politico后来将拜登在俄罗斯第二条管道上的转变描述为“危及拜登议程的一个决定，可以说不仅仅是混乱的从阿富汗撤军。”
The administration was floundering, despite getting a reprieve on the crisis in mid-November, when Germany’s energy regulators suspended approval of the second Nord Stream pipeline. Natural gas prices surged 8% within days , amid growing fears in Germany and Europe that the pipeline suspension and the growing possibility of a war between Russia and Ukraine would lead to a very much unwanted cold winter. It was not clear to Washington just where Olaf Scholz, Germany’s newly appointed chancellor, stood. Months earlier, after the fall of Afghanistan, Scholtz had publicly endorsed French President Emmanuel Macron’s call for a more autonomous European foreign policy in a speech in Prague—clearly suggesting less reliance on Washington and its mercurial actions.
11月中旬，德国能源监管机构暂停批准了第二条北溪管道，尽管危机得到了缓解，但政府仍在挣扎。天然气价格在几天内飙升了8%，德国和欧洲越来越担心管道暂停以及俄罗斯和乌克兰之间战争的可能性越来越大，将导致一个非常不必要的寒冬。华盛顿不清楚新任命的德国总理奥拉夫·肖尔茨的立场。几个月前，阿富汗陷落后，肖尔茨在布拉格的一次演讲中公开支持法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙呼吁欧洲外交政策更加自主——这显然表明减少对华盛顿及其善变行动的依赖。
Throughout all of this, Russian troops had been steadily and ominously building up on the borders of Ukraine, and by the end of December more than 100,000 soldiers were in position to strike from Belarus and Crimea. Alarm was growing in Washington, including an assessment from Blinken that those troop numbers could be “doubled in short order.”
在整个过程中，俄罗斯军队一直在乌克兰边境稳定而不祥地集结。到12月底，已有超过10万名士兵准备从白俄罗斯和克里米亚发动攻击。华盛顿的警觉与日俱增，包括布林肯的评估，即这些部队的人数可能会“在短时间内增加一倍”。
The administration’s attention once again was focused on Nord Stream. As long as Europe remained dependent on the pipelines for cheap natural gas, Washington was afraid that countries like Germany would be reluctant to supply Ukraine with the money and weapons it needed to defeat Russia.
政府的注意力再次集中在北溪。只要欧洲仍然依赖廉价天然气管道，华盛顿担心德国等国家会不愿意向乌克兰提供击败俄罗斯所需的资金和武器。
It was at this unsettled moment that Biden authorized Jake Sullivan to bring together an interagency group to come up with a plan.
正是在这个动荡的时刻，拜登授权杰克·沙利文召集一个机构间小组提出一个计划。
All options were to be on the table. But only one would emerge.
所有的选择都在桌面上。但只有一个会出现。
PLANNING
规划
In December of 2021, two months before the first Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine, Jake Sullivan convened a meeting of a newly formed task force—men and women from the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the CIA, and the State and Treasury Departments—and asked for recommendations about how to respond to Putin’s impending invasion.
2021年12月，在第一批俄罗斯坦克开进乌克兰的两个月前，杰克·沙利文召集了一个新成立的特别工作组会议-来自参谋长联席会议，CIA，国家和财政部的男女-并要求就如何应对普京即将到来的入侵提出建议。
It would be the first of a series of top-secret meetings, in a secure room on a top floor of the Old Executive Office Building, adjacent to the White House, that was also the home of the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board (PFIAB). There was the usual back and forth chatter that eventually led to a crucial preliminary question: Would the recommendation forwarded by the group to the President be reversible—such as another layer of sanctions and currency restrictions—or irreversible—that is, kinetic actions, which could not be undone?
这将是一系列绝密会议中的第一次。会议将在白宫附近的旧行政办公楼顶层的一个安全房间里举行，那里也是总统外国情报顾问委员会（PFIAB）的所在地。通常的来回交谈最终导致了一个关键的初步问题：该小组向总统提出的建议是可逆的——比如另一层制裁和货币限制——还是不可逆转的——即无法撤销的动能行动？
What became clear to participants, according to the source with direct knowledge of the process, is that Sullivan intended for the group to come up with a plan for the destruction of the two Nord Stream pipelines—and that he was delivering on the desires of the President.
据直接了解这一过程的消息来源称，参与者清楚的是，沙利文打算让该组织提出一个摧毁两条北溪管道的计划他正在实现总统的愿望。
Over the next several meetings, the participants debated options for an attack. The Navy proposed using a newly commissioned submarine to assault the pipeline directly. The Air Force discussed dropping bombs with delayed fuses that could be set off remotely. The CIA argued that whatever was done, it would have to be covert. Everyone involved understood the stakes. “This is not kiddie stuff,” the source said. If the attack were traceable to the United States, “It’s an act of war.”
在接下来的几次会议上，与会者讨论了攻击的选择。海军提议使用一艘新服役的潜艇直接攻击管道。空军讨论了投掷带有延迟引信的炸弹，这些引信可以远程引爆。CIA认为，无论做什么，都必须是秘密的。所有参与的人都明白其中的利害关系。“这不是小孩子的事情，”消息人士说。如果袭击可以追溯到美国，“这是一种战争行为。”
At the time, the CIA was directed by William Burns, a mild-mannered former ambassador to Russia who had served as deputy secretary of state in the Obama Administration. Burns quickly authorized an Agency working group whose ad hoc members included—by chance—someone who was familiar with the capabilities of the Navy’s deep-sea divers in Panama City. Over the next few weeks, members of the CIA’s working group began to craft a plan for a covert operation that would use deep-sea divers to trigger an explosion along the pipeline.
当时，CIA是由威廉·伯恩斯指挥的。伯恩斯是一位温文尔雅的前驻俄罗斯大使，曾在奥巴马政府担任副国务卿。伯恩斯很快批准了一个中情局工作组，其临时成员中碰巧包括一位熟悉巴拿马城海军深海潜水员能力的人。在接下来的几周里，中情局工作组的成员开始制定一项秘密行动计划，利用深海潜水员在管道沿线引发爆炸。
Something like this had been done before. In 1971, the American intelligence community learned from still undisclosed sources that two important units of the Russian Navy were communicating via an undersea cable buried in the Sea of Okhotsk, on Russia’s Far East Coast. The cable linked a regional Navy command to the mainland headquarters at Vladivostok.
类似的事情以前也发生过。1971年，美国情报界获悉，俄罗斯海军的两个重要单位正在通过一条埋在俄罗斯远东海岸鄂霍次克海的海底电缆进行通信。这条电缆将一个地区海军司令部与位于符拉迪沃斯托克的大陆总部连接起来。
A hand-picked team of Central Intelligence Agency and National Security Agency operatives was assembled somewhere in the Washington area, under deep cover, and worked out a plan, using Navy divers, modified submarines and a deep-submarine rescue vehicle, that succeeded, after much trial and error, in locating the Russian cable. The divers planted a sophisticated listening device on the cable that successfully intercepted the Russian traffic and recorded it on a taping system.
一个由中央情报局和国家安全局特工精心挑选的小组在华盛顿地区的某个地方秘密集结，利用海军潜水员、改装潜艇和深潜救援车制定了一个计划，经过反复试验，成功地找到了俄罗斯电缆。潜水员在电缆上安装了一个复杂的监听装置，成功拦截了俄罗斯的交通，并将其记录在录音系统中。
The NSA learned that senior Russian navy officers, convinced of the security of their communication link, chatted away with their peers without encryption. The recording device and its tape had to be replaced monthly and the project rolled on merrily for a decade until it was compromised by a forty-four-year-old civilian NSA technician named Ronald Pelton who was fluent in Russian. Pelton was betrayed by a Russian defector in 1985 and sentenced to prison. He was paid just $5,000 by the Russians for his revelations about the operation, along with $35,000 for other Russian operational data he provided that was never made public.
美国国家安全局了解到，俄罗斯海军高级军官确信他们的通信链路的安全性，在没有加密的情况下与同行聊天。录音设备及其磁带必须每月更换一次，该项目愉快地进行了十年，直到它被一名44岁的名叫罗纳德·佩尔顿的平民国家安全局技术人员破坏，他精通俄语。佩尔顿于1985年被一名俄罗斯叛逃者背叛，并被判入狱。俄罗斯人只付给他5000美元，因为他揭露了这次行动，还有35,000美元，因为他提供了其他从未公开的俄罗斯行动数据。
That underwater success, codenamed Ivy Bells, was innovative and risky, and produced invaluable intelligence about the Russian Navy's intentions and planning.
代号为常春藤钟声的水下成功是创新和冒险的，并产生了关于俄罗斯海军意图和计划的宝贵情报。
Still, the interagency group was initially skeptical of the CIA’s enthusiasm for a covert deep-sea attack. There were too many unanswered questions. The waters of the Baltic Sea were heavily patrolled by the Russian navy, and there were no oil rigs that could be used as cover for a diving operation. Would the divers have to go to Estonia, right across the border from Russia’s natural gas loading docks, to train for the mission? “It would be a goat fuck,” the Agency was told.
不过，这个跨部门小组最初对中情局对秘密深海袭击的热情持怀疑态度。有太多未解之谜。波罗的海水域有俄罗斯海军的大量巡逻，没有石油钻井平台可以作为潜水行动的掩护。潜水员是否必须前往与俄罗斯天然气装卸码头接壤的爱沙尼亚接受任务训练？“这将是一场山羊fuck，”中情局被告知。
Throughout “all of this scheming,” the source said, “some working guys in the CIA and the State Department were saying, ‘Don’t do this. It’s stupid and will be a political nightmare if it comes out.’”
消息人士说，在“所有这些阴谋”中，“CIA和国务院的一些工作人员说，‘不要这样做。这很愚蠢，如果它出来，将是一场政治噩梦。’”
Nevertheless, in early 2022, the CIA working group reported back to Sullivan’s interagency group: “We have a way to blow up the pipelines.”
然而，在2022年初，CIA工作组向沙利文的跨部门小组报告说：“我们有办法炸毁管道。
What came next was stunning. On February 7, less than three weeks before the seemingly inevitable Russian invasion of Ukraine, Biden met in his White House office with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who, after some wobbling, was now firmly on the American team. At the press briefing that followed, Biden defiantly said, “ If Russia invades . . . there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it .”
接下来发生的事情令人震惊。2月7日，距离俄罗斯似乎不可避免地入侵乌克兰不到三周，拜登在白宫办公室会见了德国总理奥拉夫·舒尔茨。舒尔茨经过一番摇摆不定，现在坚定地加入了美国队。在随后的新闻发布会上，拜登挑衅地说：“如果俄罗斯入侵 . . . 北溪2号将不再存在。我们将结束它。”
Twenty days earlier, Undersecretary Nuland had delivered essentially the same message at a State Department briefing, with little press coverage. “I want to be very clear to you today,” she said in response to a question. “If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another Nord Stream 2 will not move forward .”
20天前，纽兰副国务卿在国务院简报会上传达了基本相同的信息，但几乎没有媒体报道。“我今天想对你说得很清楚，”她在回答一个问题时说。“如果俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，无论如何北溪2号将不会向前推进。”
Several of those involved in planning the pipeline mission were dismayed by what they viewed as indirect references to the attack.
一些参与规划管道任务的人对他们认为间接提到袭击感到沮丧。
“It was like putting an atomic bomb on the ground in Tokyo and telling the Japanese that we are going to detonate it,” the source said. “The plan was for the options to be executed post invasion and not advertised publicly. Biden simply didn’t get it or ignored it.”
“这就像在东京的地面上放了一颗原子弹，然后告诉日本人我们要引爆它，”消息人士说，“计划是在入侵后执行选项，而不是公开宣传。拜登根本没有得到它或忽略它。”
Biden’s and Nuland’s indiscretion, if that is what it was, might have frustrated some of the planners. But it also created an opportunity. According to the source, some of the senior officials of the CIA determined that blowing up the pipeline “no longer could be considered a covert option because the President just announced that we knew how to do it.”
拜登和纽兰的轻率，如果是这样的话，可能会让一些规划者感到沮丧。但这也创造了一个机会。据消息来源称，CIA的一些高级官员确定，炸毁管道"不再被视为秘密选择，因为总统刚刚宣布我们知道如何做。"
The plan to blow up Nord Stream 1 and 2 was suddenly downgraded from a covert operation requiring that Congress be informed to one that was deemed as a highly classified intelligence operation with U.S. military support. Under the law, the source explained, “There was no longer a legal requirement to report the operation to Congress. All they had to do now is just do it—but it still had to be secret. The Russians have superlative surveillance of the Baltic Sea.”
炸毁北溪1号和2号的计划突然从要求通知国会的秘密行动降级为在美国军事支持下被视为高度机密情报行动的行动。该消息人士解释说，根据法律，“不再有向国会报告行动的法律要求。他们现在所要做的就是这样做——但它仍然必须是秘密的。俄罗斯人对波罗的海拥有最高级的监视。”
The Agency working group members had no direct contact with the White House, and were eager to find out if the President meant what he’d said—that is, if the mission was now a go. The source recalled, “Bill Burns comes back and says, ‘Do it.’”
中情局工作组成员与白宫没有直接接触，他们急切地想知道总统是否是认真的，也就是说，如果任务现在开始。消息来源回忆说，“比尔·伯恩斯回来说，'做吧。'"
“The Norwegian navy was quick to find the right spot, in the shallow water a few miles off Denmark’s Bornholm Island . . .”
"挪威海军很快就找到了合适的地点，在距离丹麦博恩霍尔姆岛几英里的浅水区 . . .”
THE OPERATION
行动
Norway was the perfect place to base the mission.
挪威是执行任务的理想地点。
In the past few years of East-West crisis, the U.S. military has vastly expanded its presence inside Norway, whose western border runs 1,400 miles along the north Atlantic Ocean and merges above the Arctic Circle with Russia. The Pentagon has created high paying jobs and contracts, amid some local controversy, by investing hundreds of millions of dollars to upgrade and expand American Navy and Air Force facilities in Norway. The new works included, most importantly, an advanced synthetic aperture radar far up north that was capable of penetrating deep into Russia and came online just as the American intelligence community lost access to a series of long-range listening sites inside China.
在过去几年的东西方危机中，美国军方大幅扩大了在挪威的存在。挪威的西部边界沿着北大西洋延伸1400英里，在北极圈上方与俄罗斯交汇。五角大楼投资数亿美元升级和扩建美国海军和空军在挪威的设施，从而创造了高薪工作和合同。最重要的是，新工程包括一种先进的合成孔径雷达，它能够深入俄罗斯，并在美国情报界无法进入中国境内的一系列远程监听地点时上线。
A newly refurbished American submarine base, which had been under construction for years, had become operational and more American submarines were now able to work closely with their Norwegian colleagues to monitor and spy on a major Russian nuclear redoubt 250 miles to the east, on the Kola Peninsula. America also has vastly expanded a Norwegian air base in the north and delivered to the Norwegian air force a fleet of Boeing-built P8 Poseidon patrol planes to bolster its long-range spying on all things Russia.
一个新建的美国潜艇基地已经建造了多年，现在已经可以投入使用，更多的美国潜艇现在能够与他们的挪威同事密切合作，监视和监视以东250英里的科拉半岛上的一个主要的俄罗斯核堡垒。美国还在北部大幅扩建了一个挪威空军基地，并向挪威空军交付了一支由波音公司制造的P8海神巡逻机组成的舰队，以加强其对俄罗斯所有事物的远程间谍活动。
In return, the Norwegian government angered liberals and some moderates in its parliament last November by passing the Supplementary Defense Cooperation Agreement (SDCA). Under the new deal, the U.S. legal system would have jurisdiction in certain “agreed areas ” in the North over American soldiers accused of crimes off base, as well as over those Norwegian citizens accused or suspected of interfering with the work at the base.
作为回报，挪威政府去年11月通过了《补充防务合作协议》（SDCA），激怒了自由派和议会中的一些温和派。根据新协议，美国法律体系将在某些“商定地区”对被控在基地外犯罪的美国士兵以及被控或涉嫌干扰基地工作的挪威公民拥有管辖权。
Norway was one of the original signatories of the NATO Treaty in 1949, in the early days of the Cold War. Today, the supreme commander of NATO is Jens Stoltenberg, a committed anti-communist, who served as Norway’s prime minister for eight years before moving to his high NATO post, with American backing, in 2014. He was a hardliner on all things Putin and Russia who had cooperated with the American intelligence community since the Vietnam War. He has been trusted completely since. “He is the glove that fits the American hand,” the source said.
1949年，在冷战初期，挪威是《北约条约》的原始签署国之一。如今，北约的最高统帅是延斯·斯托尔滕贝格，他是一位坚定的反共人士，曾担任挪威总理八年，直到2014年在美国的支持下担任北约高级职位。他在普京和俄罗斯的所有事情上都是强硬派，自越南战争以来一直与美国情报界合作。从那以后，他一直受到完全信任。“他是适合美国人的手套，”消息人士说。
Back in Washington, planners knew they had to go to Norway. “They hated the Russians, and the Norwegian navy was full of superb sailors and divers who had generations of experience in highly profitable deep-sea oil and gas exploration,” the source said. They also could be trusted to keep the mission secret. (The Norwegians may have had other interests as well. The destruction of Nord Stream—if the Americans could pull it off—would allow Norway to sell vastly more of its own natural gas to Europe.)
回到华盛顿，规划者们知道他们必须去挪威。“他们讨厌俄罗斯人，挪威海军里到处都是优秀的水手和潜水员，他们在高利润的深海石油和天然气勘探方面有着几代人的经验，”消息人士说。他们也可以被信任为这项任务保密。（挪威人可能也有其他利益。北溪的破坏——如果美国人能成功的话——将使挪威能够向欧洲出售更多的天然气。）
Sometime in March, a few members of the team flew to Norway to meet with the Norwegian Secret Service and Navy. One of the key questions was where exactly in the Baltic Sea was the best place to plant the explosives. Nord Stream 1 and 2, each with two sets of pipelines, were separated much of the way by little more than a mile as they made their run to the port of Greifswald in the far northeast of Germany.
今年3月的某个时候，该小组的几名成员飞往挪威，与挪威特勤局和海军会面。关键问题之一是，波罗的海的哪个地方是放置爆炸物的最佳地点。北溪1号和北溪2号分别有两套管道，在前往德国东北部的格雷夫斯瓦尔德港时，大部分距离相隔不到一英里。
The Norwegian navy was quick to find the right spot, in the shallow waters of the Baltic sea a few miles off Denmark’s Bornholm Island. The pipelines ran more than a mile apart along a seafloor that was only 260 feet deep. That would be well within the range of the divers, who, operating from a Norwegian Alta class mine hunter, would dive with a mixture of oxygen, nitrogen and helium streaming from their tanks, and plant shaped C4 charges on the four pipelines with concrete protective covers. It would be tedious, time consuming and dangerous work, but the waters off Bornholm had another advantage: there were no major tidal currents, which would have made the task of diving much more difficult.
挪威海军很快在波罗的海的浅水区找到了合适的地点，距离丹麦的博恩霍尔姆岛只有几英里。这些管道沿着只有260英尺深的海底延伸了一英里多。这将完全在潜水员的范围内，潜水员从挪威阿尔塔级探矿者手中潜入水中，水箱中流出氧气、氮气和氦气的混合物，四个管道上的植物形状的C4炸药带有混凝土防护罩。这将是一项乏味、耗时和危险的工作，但博恩霍尔姆附近的水域还有另一个优势：没有大的潮流，这将使潜水任务变得更加困难。
After a bit of research, the Americans were all in.
经过一番研究，美国人都加入了。
At this point, the Navy’s obscure deep-diving group in Panama City once again came into play. The deep-sea schools at Panama City, whose trainees participated in Ivy Bells, are seen as an unwanted backwater by the elite graduates of the Naval Academy in Annapolis, who typically seek the glory of being assigned as a Seal, fighter pilot, or submariner. If one must become a “Black Shoe”—that is, a member of the less desirable surface ship command—there is always at least duty on a destroyer, cruiser or amphibious ship. The least glamorous of all is mine warfare. Its divers never appear in Hollywood movies, or on the cover of popular magazines.
在这一点上，海军在巴拿马城的默默无闻的深海潜水小组再次发挥了作用。巴拿马城的深海学校，其学员参加了常春藤钟声，被安纳波利斯海军学院的精英毕业生视为不想要的死水，他们通常寻求被分配为海豹突击队、战斗机飞行员或潜水员的荣耀。如果一个人必须成为“黑鞋”——即不太理想的水面舰艇司令部的成员——驱逐舰、巡洋舰或两栖船总是至少有责任的。最不迷人的是水雷战。它的潜水员从未出现在好莱坞电影或流行杂志的封面上。
“The best divers with deep diving qualifications are a tight community, and only the very best are recruited for the operation and told to be prepared to be summoned to the CIA in Washington,” the source said.
消息人士说：「拥有深潜资格的最佳潜水员是一个紧密的社区，只有最优秀的潜水员才会被招募参加行动，并被告知准备被传唤到华盛顿的CIA。
The Norwegians and Americans had a location and the operatives, but there was another concern: any unusual underwater activity in the waters off Bornholm might draw the attention of the Swedish or Danish navies, which could report it.
挪威人和美国人有一个位置和特工，但还有另一个担忧：博恩霍尔姆附近水域的任何异常水下活动都可能引起瑞典或丹麦海军的注意，他们可能会报告。
Denmark had also been one of the original NATO signatories and was known in the intelligence community for its special ties to the United Kingdom. Sweden had applied for membership into NATO, and had demonstrated its great skill in managing its underwater sound and magnetic sensor systems that successfully tracked Russian submarines that would occasionally show up in remote waters of the Swedish archipelago and be forced to the surface.
丹麦也是北约最初的签署国之一，在情报界以其与英国的特殊关系而闻名。瑞典申请加入北约，并展示了其管理水下声音和磁传感器系统的高超技能，该系统成功地跟踪了偶尔出现在瑞典群岛偏远水域并被迫浮出水面的俄罗斯潜艇。
The Norwegians joined the Americans in insisting that some senior officials in Denmark and Sweden had to be briefed in general terms about possible diving activity in the area. In that way, someone higher up could intervene and keep a report out of the chain of command, thus insulating the pipeline operation. “What they were told and what they knew were purposely different,” the source told me. (The Norwegian embassy, asked to comment on this story, did not respond.)
挪威人和美国人一样，坚持要求丹麦和瑞典的一些高级官员必须听取有关该地区可能的潜水活动的一般简报。这样，上级可以进行干预，并将报告排除在指挥系统之外，从而隔离管线作业。“他们被告知的和他们知道的是故意不同的，”消息来源告诉我。（被要求对此事发表评论的挪威大使馆没有回应。）
The Norwegians were key to solving other hurdles. The Russian navy was known to possess surveillance technology capable of spotting, and triggering, underwater mines. The American explosive devices needed to be camouflaged in a way that would make them appear to the Russian system as part of the natural background—something that required adapting to the specific salinity of the water. The Norwegians had a fix.
挪威人是解决其他障碍的关键。众所周知，俄罗斯海军拥有能够发现并触发水下水雷的监视技术。美国的爆炸装置需要进行伪装，使其在俄罗斯系统中看起来像是自然背景的一部分——这需要适应水的特定盐度。挪威人有一个解决方案。
The Norwegians also had a solution to the crucial question of when the operation should take place. Every June, for the past 21 years, the American Sixth Fleet, whose flagship is based in Gaeta, Italy, south of Rome, has sponsored a major NATO exercise in the Baltic Sea involving scores of allied ships throughout the region. The current exercise, held in June, would be known as Baltic Operations 22, or BALTOPS 22 . The Norwegians proposed this would be the ideal cover to plant the mines.
对于何时开始行动这个关键问题，挪威人也有一个解决方案。在过去的21年里，每年6月，美国第六舰队都会赞助北约在波罗的海进行一次大型演习，该演习涉及整个地区的数十艘盟军船只。美国第六舰队的旗舰基地位于意大利的盖塔。目前的演习于6月举行，将被称为波罗的海行动22，或BALTOPS 22。挪威人提出，这将是埋设地雷的理想掩护。
The Americans provided one vital element: they convinced the Sixth Fleet planners to add a research and development exercise to the program. The exercise, as made public by the Navy , involved the Sixth Fleet in collaboration with the Navy’s “research and warfare centers.” The at-sea event would be held off the coast of Bornholm Island and involve NATO teams of divers planting mines, with competing teams using the latest underwater technology to find and destroy them.
美国人提供了一个至关重要的因素：他们说服了第六舰队的计划人员，在该计划中增加了一项研发演习。由海军公开的演习涉及第六舰队与海军的“研究和作战中心”合作。海上活动将在博恩霍尔姆岛海岸举行，北约的潜水员团队将参与埋设地雷，而竞争团队则使用最新的水下技术来寻找和摧毁地雷。
It was both a useful exercise and ingenious cover. The Panama City boys would do their thing and the C4 explosives would be in place by the end of BALTOPS22, with a 48-hour timer attached. All of the Americans and Norwegians would be long gone by the first explosion.
这既是一个有用的练习，也是一个巧妙的掩护。巴拿马城的男孩们会做他们的事情，C4炸药将在BALTOPS22结束时到位，并附有48小时的计时器。所有的美国人和挪威人都将在第一次爆炸时消失。
The days were counting down. “The clock was ticking, and we were nearing mission accomplished,” the source said.
时间在倒计时。“时间在滴答作响，我们即将完成任务，”消息人士说。
And then: Washington had second thoughts. The bombs would still be planted during BALTOPS, but the White House worried that a two-day window for their detonation would be too close to the end of the exercise, and it would be obvious that America had been involved.
然后，华盛顿改变了主意。炸弹仍将在BALTOPS期间放置，但白宫担心，为期两天的引爆窗口距离演习结束太近了，很明显美国已经参与其中。
Instead, the White House had a new request: “Can the guys in the field come up with some way to blow the pipelines later on command?”
相反，白宫提出了一个新的要求：“现场的人能想出一些方法，稍后在命令下炸毁管道吗？”
Some members of the planning team were angered and frustrated by the President’s seeming indecision. The Panama City divers had repeatedly practiced planting the C4 on pipelines, as they would during BALTOPS, but now the team in Norway had to come up with a way to give Biden what he wanted—the ability to issue a successful execution order at a time of his choosing.
计划小组的一些成员对总统似乎犹豫不决感到愤怒和沮丧。巴拿马城的潜水员曾多次练习在管道上种植C4，就像他们在BALTOPS期间一样，但现在挪威的团队必须想出一种方法，让拜登得到他想要的东西——能够在他选择的时间发布成功的处决令。
Being tasked with an arbitrary, last-minute change was something the CIA was accustomed to managing. But it also renewed the concerns some shared over the necessity, and legality, of the entire operation.
CIA习惯于在最后一刻进行武断的改变。但这也再次引起了一些人对整个行动的必要性和合法性的担忧。
The President’s secret orders also evoked the CIA’s dilemma in the Vietnam War days, when President Johnson, confronted by growing anti-Vietnam War sentiment, ordered the Agency to violate its charter—which specifically barred it from operating inside America—by spying on antiwar leaders to determine whether they were being controlled by Communist Russia.
总统的秘密命令也引发了中情局在越南战争时期的困境，当时约翰逊总统面对日益增长的反越南战争情绪，命令中情局违反其章程-特别禁止其在美国境内运作-通过监视反战领导人来确定他们是否被共产主义俄罗斯控制。
The agency ultimately acquiesced, and throughout the 1970s it became clear just how far it had been willing to go. There were subsequent newspaper revelations in the aftermath of the Watergate scandals about the Agency’s spying on American citizens, its involvement in the assassination of foreign leaders and its undermining of the socialist government of Salvador Allende.
中情局最终默许了这一点。在整个20世纪70年代，中情局愿意走多远的事情变得越来越清楚。水门事件丑闻之后，报纸披露了中情局对美国公民进行间谍活动、参与暗杀外国领导人以及破坏萨尔瓦多·阿连德的社会主义政府的消息。
Those revelations led to a dramatic series of hearings in the mid-1970s in the Senate, led by Frank Church of Idaho, that made it clear that Richard Helms, the Agency director at the time, accepted that he had an obligation to do what the President wanted, even if it meant violating the law.
这些揭露导致了20世纪70年代中期由爱达荷州弗兰克·丘奇领导的参议院一系列戏剧性的听证会，这些听证会明确表示，当时的机构主任理查德·赫尔姆斯承认，他有义务做总统想要的事情，即使这意味着违反法律。
In unpublished, closed-door testimony, Helms ruefully explained that “you almost have an Immaculate Conception when you do something” under secret orders from a President. “Whether it’s right that you should have it, or wrong that you shall have it, [the CIA] works under different rules and ground rules than any other part of the government.” He was essentially telling the Senators that he, as head of the CIA, understood that he had been working for the Crown, and not the Constitution.
在未公开的闭门证词中，赫尔姆斯遗憾地解释说，根据总统的秘密命令，当你做某事时，你几乎有一个完美的概念。无论你应该拥有它是对的，还是你应该拥有它是错的，[CIA]在不同于政府任何其他部门的规则和基本规则下工作。他基本上是在告诉参议员，作为CIA的负责人，他明白他一直在为王室工作，而不是宪法。
The Americans at work in Norway operated under the same dynamic, and dutifully began working on the new problem—how to remotely detonate the C4 explosives on Biden’s order. It was a much more demanding assignment than those in Washington understood. There was no way for the team in Norway to know when the President might push the button. Would it be in a few weeks, in many months or in half a year or longer?
在挪威工作的美国人在同样的动态下运作，并尽职尽责地开始研究新问题——如何根据拜登的命令远程引爆C4炸药。这是一项比华盛顿人所理解的要求高得多的任务。挪威的团队无法知道总统何时会按下按钮。是几周、几个月、半年还是更长时间？
The C4 attached to the pipelines would be triggered by a sonar buoy dropped by a plane on short notice, but the procedure involved the most advanced signal processing technology. Once in place, the delayed timing devices attached to any of the four pipelines could be accidentally triggered by the complex mix of ocean background noises throughout the heavily trafficked Baltic Sea—from near and distant ships, underwater drilling, seismic events, waves and even sea creatures. To avoid this, the sonar buoy, once in place, would emit a sequence of unique low frequency tonal sounds—much like those emitted by a flute or a piano—that would be recognized by the timing device and, after a pre-set hours of delay, trigger the explosives. (“You want a signal that is robust enough so that no other signal could accidentally send a pulse that detonated the explosives,” I was told by Dr. Theodore Postol, professor emeritus of science, technology and national security policy at MIT. Postol, who has served as the science adviser to the Pentagon’s Chief of Naval Operations, said the issue facing the group in Norway because of Biden’s delay was one of chance: “The longer the explosives are in the water the greater risk there would be of a random signal that would launch the bombs.”)
连接在管道上的C4将由飞机在短时间内投放的声纳浮标触发，但这一过程涉及最先进的信号处理技术。一旦安装到位，连接在四条管道中任何一条上的延迟计时装置都可能被波罗的海交通繁忙的海洋背景噪音的复杂混合意外触发——来自远近船只、水下钻探、地震事件、海浪甚至海洋生物。为了避免这种情况，声纳浮标一旦到位，就会发出一系列独特的低频音调声音——很像长笛或钢琴发出的声音——这些声音会被定时装置识别，并在预设的几个小时延迟后触发炸药。（MIT科学、技术和国家安全政策名誉教授西奥多·波斯托博士告诉我，“你需要一个足够强大的信号，以便没有其他信号可以意外发送引爆炸药的脉冲。”波斯托曾担任五角大楼海军作战部长的科学顾问，他说，由于拜登的拖延，该组织在挪威面临的问题是一个偶然的问题：爆炸物在水中的时间越长，发射炸弹的随机信号的风险就越大。）
On September 26, 2022, a Norwegian Navy P8 surveillance plane made a seemingly routine flight and dropped a sonar buoy. The signal spread underwater, initially to Nord Stream 2 and then on to Nord Stream 1. A few hours later, the high-powered C4 explosives were triggered and three of the four pipelines were put out of commission. Within a few minutes, pools of methane gas that remained in the shuttered pipelines could be seen spreading on the water’s surface and the world learned that something irreversible had taken place.
2022年9月26日，挪威海军的一架P8侦察机进行了一次看似例行的飞行，并投下了声纳浮标。信号在水下传播，最初是北溪2号，然后是北溪1号。几个小时后，大功率C4炸药被触发，四条管道中的三条被停用。几分钟内，可以看到留在关闭的管道中的甲烷气体池在水面上蔓延，世界得知发生了不可逆转的事情。
FALLOUT
后果
In the immediate aftermath of the pipeline bombing, the American media treated it like an unsolved mystery. Russia was repeatedly cited as a likely culprit , spurred on by calculated leaks from the White House—but without ever establishing a clear motive for such an act of self-sabotage, beyond simple retribution. A few months later, when it emerged that Russian authorities had been quietly getting estimates for the cost to repair the pipelines, the New York Times described the news as “complicating theories about who was behind” the attack. No major American newspaper dug into the earlier threats to the pipelines made by Biden and Undersecretary of State Nuland.
管道爆炸事件发生后，美国媒体立即将其视为一个未解之谜。俄罗斯一再被认为是一个可能的罪魁祸首，受到白宫精心策划的泄密事件的刺激——但除了简单的报复之外，从未确定这种自我破坏行为的明确动机。几个月后，当俄罗斯当局悄悄获得修复管道的成本估计时，《纽约时报》称这一消息“使关于谁是幕后黑手的理论复杂化”。没有一家美国主要报纸深入研究拜登和副国务卿纽兰早些时候对管道的威胁。
While it was never clear why Russia would seek to destroy its own lucrative pipeline, a more telling rationale for the President’s action came from Secretary of State Blinken.
虽然尚不清楚为什么俄罗斯会试图摧毁自己利润丰厚的管道，但国务卿布林肯为总统的行动提供了更有说服力的理由。
Asked at a press conference last September about the consequences of the worsening energy crisis in Western Europe, Blinken described the moment as a potentially good one:
在去年9月的新闻发布会上，当被问及西欧能源危机恶化的后果时，布林肯形容这是一个潜在的好时机：
“It’s a tremendous opportunity to once and for all remove the dependence on Russian energy and thus to take away from Vladimir Putin the weaponization of energy as a means of advancing his imperial designs. That’s very significant and that offers tremendous strategic opportunity for the years to come, but meanwhile we’re determined to do everything we possibly can to make sure the consequences of all of this are not borne by citizens in our countries or, for that matter, around the world.”
“这是一个巨大的机会，可以一劳永逸地消除对俄罗斯能源的依赖，从而从弗拉基米尔·普京手中夺走将能源武器化作为推进其帝国主义计划的手段。这非常重要，为未来几年提供了巨大的战略机遇，但与此同时，我们决心尽我们所能，确保所有这一切的后果不会由我们国家的公民承担，或者就此而言，不会由世界各地的公民承担。”
More recently, Victoria Nuland expressed satisfaction at the demise of the newest of the pipelines. Testifying at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing in late January she told Senator Ted Cruz, “Like you, I am, and I think the Administration is, very gratified to know that Nord Stream 2 is now, as you like to say, a hunk of metal at the bottom of the sea.”
最近，维多利亚·纽兰对最新管道的消亡表示满意。1月底，她在参议院外交关系委员会的听证会上作证时告诉参议员特德·克鲁兹，“像你一样，我也是，我认为政府非常高兴地知道，正如你喜欢说的那样，北溪2号现在是海底的一块金属。”
The source had a much more streetwise view of Biden’s decision to sabotage more than 1500 miles of Gazprom pipeline as winter approached. “Well,” he said, speaking of the President, “I gotta admit the guy has a pair of balls. He said he was going to do it, and he did.”
这位消息人士对拜登决定在冬季来临之际破坏俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司1500多英里管道的决定有更具街头智慧的看法。“嗯，”他在谈到总统时说，“我得承认这家伙很有胆量。他说他会这么做，他做到了。”
Asked why he thought the Russians failed to respond, he said cynically, “Maybe they want the capability to do the same things the U.S. did.
当被问及为什么他认为俄罗斯人没有回应时，他愤世嫉俗地说，"也许他们希望有能力做美国做的同样的事情。
“It was a beautiful cover story,” he went on. “Behind it was a covert operation that placed experts in the field and equipment that operated on a covert signal.
“这是一个美丽的封面故事，”他接着说。“背后是一个秘密行动，放置了该领域的专家和根据秘密信号操作的设备。
“The only flaw was the decision to do it.”
“唯一的缺陷是做这件事的决定。”
美国放炸弹，挪威人引爆，顶尖记者爆料北溪管道是美国炸的！
自家记者揭露自家的短，美国人又搞出了一个大新闻。
近期，美国调查记者西摩·赫什发表了一篇《美国如何摧毁北溪管道》的文章，该文章称美国是北溪天然气管道爆炸的幕后黑手。
无相君梳理总结了八大重点：
1.2022年夏天，美国海军潜水员在北溪管道下安装了炸药，挪威人在三个月后引爆了炸药。
2.美国海军一直都专门训练深水潜水员，有能力使用C4炸药炸毁外国石油钻井平台、污染海底发电站的进气阀等。
3.放炸弹的时间是在“波罗的海行动22”的北约演习期间，挪威人远程遥控，“干湿分离”。
4.摧毁两条北溪管道的计划，是美国总统国家安全事务助理沙利文联合多部门提出的。美国中情局强调，无论做什么，都必须秘密进行，使其不可追溯。
5.美国担忧德国和其他西欧国家将沉迷于俄罗斯提供的低成本天然气，同时逐步减少欧洲对美国的依赖。
6.一名美国官员承认，试图通过制裁和外交手段阻止管道建设，但“一直希望渺茫”。
7.选在挪威是因为挪威有不少美国军事设施，能够深入窃取俄罗斯情报。
其次，挪威人痛恨俄罗斯人，并在深海石油和天然气勘探方面拥有几代人的经验，可以被信任，为任务保密。
此外，北溪一旦破坏，挪威就能向欧洲出售更多的天然气，和美国互利双赢。
8.爆炸发生后，美国媒体立即将其视为未解之谜，没有一家美国主流报纸深入探讨拜登和纽兰副国务卿早期对管道的威胁。
看到这，让人毛骨悚然，原来，一项周密计划背后竟然藏着那么多的秘密。
当然，面对这份炸裂的报道，美国当然死不承认，毕竟这种行为等同于宣战。
一旦坐实，危害性要比曾经的棱镜计划和猪湾入侵被披露要大得多。
美国白宫国家安全委员会发言人艾德丽安·沃森说：
“这完全是虚假的，彻头彻尾的虚构。”
随后，美国中情局也附议了。
那么，这篇文章的可信度又有多少呢？
这还要看看记者本人的经历。
公开资料显示，这篇文章的作者西摩·赫什是美国顶尖的调查报道记者。关键词：顶尖。这个顶尖，最早来自于1969年还是自由撰稿人的西摩·赫什，率先披露了美军在越南制造的“美莱大屠杀”真相。“美莱大屠杀”，说的是在1968年3月，美军一个连队进入越南广义省的美莱村，开始了持续几个小时的大屠杀。
男人被迅速枪杀，女人被强奸后再杀掉，小孩子则被当作枪靶子。最后，整个村子109名村民无一幸免。这简直和当年日本战犯在中国犯下滔天罪行一样。面对美军在越南惨无人道的行径，美国人再也不相信政府是“去帮助他们重建家园”的说辞。进而激发了美国人的反战情绪，并在相当程度上起到了终结越战的作用。他也因此获得了1970年的普利策国际报道奖。
美国《沙龙》杂志对他的描述是：“他常常像狼一样嚎叫着，深入到世界的最黑暗处，尽可能地睁大眼睛，以看清肮脏的人性。”成名之后，西摩·赫什被《纽约时报》纳入麾下，写了大量的深度报道。揭露了美国中情局秘密监视民间组织。揭露了基辛格下令轰炸了柬埔寨，监听助手和白宫顾问。揭露了美军虐待伊拉克囚犯事件……你也许会疑惑，为啥这个人老是和美国权贵过不去？
难道他被苏联收买了？
其实，还是因为一口气，他早期在美联社工作，负责收集五角大楼的新闻，并挖掘过一个独家报道——军方正在海外研制神经毒气。但美联社没觉得这稿件不重要，编辑把它删掉了80%。这让年轻气盛的西摩·赫什非常懊恼，并离开美联社。后来，他转战《纽约时报》《新共和》等杂志，写了数篇关于美国生化武器的深度报道，并整合成了长达354页《生化武器：美国秘密武器库》。
书中所提到的“橙剂”，就在美国对越南的战争中被使用，不仅制造了严重的生态污染，也伤害了当地人民的身体健康。
他最初的挫折，最大的伤痛，因军方报道被折磨，也因报道军方成名。所以此后的数十年时间，西摩·赫什大部分的精力，都专注于追踪美国军方的丑事。
究竟美国官方和西摩·赫什谁说的是真话，谁说的是假话。我们还不敢断定。但可以肯定的是，北溪管道是俄德两国耗资数十亿美元的基础设施项目，要是这两个国家自己炸自己的项目，纯属脑子瓦特了。而且，如果是俄罗斯炸的，西方世界的“主流媒体”也早就铺天盖地去公布真相了。可这件事奇怪就奇怪在，整个西方世界的主流媒体，都不愿谈及太深。
刑侦的一个重要经验是：往往谁得利，就是谁干的。北溪一旦建成，就会大大减少了俄罗斯的能源损耗和运输效率，沿路的国家，也可以当过路财神。要知道，美国近十多年大力开发页岩气，已经成为了世界最大的天然气生产国。可他们输出的天然气是液化形式，用船只和车辆运输，而不依赖管道。所以，北溪的存在，的确是美国的竞争对手。还记得2020年，美国国会就要求，制裁所有参与建造北溪2号的公司和负责人，措施包括对个人取消签证和冻结财产等。当时，北溪2号的管道工程，只差160公里就能完工，因为美国的阻挠，工程突然就烂尾了。
时任德国总理默克尔勃然大怒，认为美国干涉德国内政，拒绝参加当年的G7峰会。最后，德国还是把这个事给做成了。可惜的是，今日管道已炸，排除了俄罗斯的“联合调查组”，到现在也没给出个结论。会是谁炸的呢？答案在风中飘荡。
